ICT New York Open Model: 08:30 News, Reversals and Continuation

By the time New York opens, London has often been trading for several hours and has already made a move. The New York open model asks what comes next: will New York carry that move further, or reverse it? The answer depends on where the higher-timeframe draw on liquidity sits and on how price reacts around the morning's scheduled data. The entry itself is the same sequence used in the ICT 2022 model, applied to New York's busiest hours.

What it is

The model is built around a few fixed times, all in New York local time (ET):

Reversal or continuation

• Reversal: London's move ran into a higher-timeframe PD array, or took liquidity that was on the wrong side of the daily draw. New York sweeps London's extreme, shifts structure and heads the other way.
• Continuation: London moved toward the daily draw but has not reached it. New York retraces into a London fair value gap or order block, then continues in the same direction.

Your daily bias decides which scenario you look for. Forex traders usually focus on 07:00–10:00 ET; index traders often wait for the 09:30 ET cash open and the first half hour after it.

How to identify it

1. Mark London's high and low (02:00–05:00 ET) and note its direction.
2. Compare it with the daily draw. Did London move toward it, or away from it into an opposing array?
3. Check the calendar for 08:30 ET and 10:00 ET releases.
4. Wait for the sweep. In a reversal, price should run London's extreme; in a continuation, it should take a short-term high or low against the trend.
5. Confirm displacement and an MSS on the 5-minute chart.
6. Enter on the retrace into the fair value gap, with the stop beyond the sweep.
7. Plan around 10:00 ET. Decide in advance whether you will take partial profit or move the stop before that release.

Worked example: a bearish New York reversal on EUR/USD

All prices are illustrative. Assume the daily bias on EUR/USD is bearish, the draw on liquidity is the previous day low at 1.0790, and a bearish 4-hour FVG sits between 1.0870 and 1.0885.

• London (02:00–05:00 ET): price rallied from 1.0815 to a high of 1.0868 at 04:10 ET, approaching the 4-hour FVG.
• 07:15 ET: a small swing low forms at 1.0850.
• 08:30 ET: US data is released. Price spikes to 1.0879, 11 pips above the London high and inside the 4-hour FVG.
• 08:45 ET: a displacement sell-off breaks below 1.0850 (the MSS) and reaches 1.0842, leaving a bearish FVG from 1.0858 to 1.0864. Its 50% level is 1.0861.

• Risk: 1.0884 − 1.0861 = 23 pips (stop 5 pips above the spike high).
• Target 1: 1.0861 − 1.0815 = 46 pips, 2 times the risk.
• Target 2: 1.0861 − 1.0790 = 71 pips, about 3.1 times the risk.

With a $10,000 account risking 1% ($100) and about $10 per pip per standard lot, position size = $100 ÷ (23 × $10) ≈ 0.43 lots. If a 10:00 ET release is scheduled and price has not reached target 1, a trader might move the stop to just above the FVG at 1.0866, cutting the risk to 5 pips before the data. Decide this rule before the session, not during it.

Notice that the trade was not taken during the 08:30 spike. The spike created the sweep; the structure shift afterward provided the entry.

How traders use it

• After a London open trade. If the London open model reached its target, New York may reverse; if it fell short, New York may continue.
• On index futures. For NQ or ES, many traders mark the 09:30 ET opening price and the overnight high and low, then look for the sweep and MSS in the first hour.
• Inside a smaller window. The 10:00–11:00 ET Silver Bullet hour often contains the same pattern on a smaller scale.
• With news awareness. The Economic Calendar is part of the setup, not an extra.

Trading around news carries substantial risk, including slippage and wider spreads. Stops can fill worse than planned, so keep size modest.

Common mistakes

• Trading the 08:30 ET spike itself. The first move after data is often the sweep, not the trend.
• Assuming New York always reverses London. It continues London's move on many days.
• Holding full size through 10:00 ET without a plan.
• Mixing up forex and index timing. The 09:30 ET open matters most for equity indices.
• Forgetting daylight saving changes if you convert ET to your local time. The kill zone lesson covers this.

Summary

The ICT New York open model works inside the 07:00–10:00 ET kill zone, with 09:30 ET as an extra key time for index futures. Decide from your daily bias whether New York should reverse or continue London's move, let the 08:30 ET data create the sweep, then enter on the MSS and fair value gap with a stop beyond the sweep. Plan how you will manage the trade before 10:00 ET releases, and size every trade from the stop distance.